DETROIT – Now that we’ve spent weeks of listening to ESPN’s Todd McShay shuffle his draft order like a deck of cards and tried not to stare at Mel Kiper Jr’s giant hair taking over our television screens, it’s our turn to make a prediction who will be the No. 1 overall pick by the Detroit Lions.Forecasts throughout talk shows and websites on who will be the pick for the 0-16 Lions have been changing like the weather.

Many had Georgia ‘Dawg QB Matt Stafford a solid No. 1 choice and USC QB Mark Sanchez as a possibility but drafting a quarterback high is a too big a gamble for the Lions (Google Joey Harrington). I expect the Lions to shy away from high-risk picks like Stafford or Sanchez.

New Detroit Lions Coach Jim Schwartz has not ruled out taking a quarterback in the top slot but isn’t quite sold on it yet, “We need to see [Stafford] throw,” said Schwartz who insisted Stafford come in for a personal workout.

Alabama OT Andre Smith, another one-time projected No. 1 overall has also fallen off the top rung of my ladder after he ditched the combine on drill day and when finally performing in front of a group of NFL observers, failed miserably. His numbers included a 5.28 second 40-yard dash and a 225 bench press 19 times.

Many of Smith’s numbers for the day would not have placed him even in the top ten of the OT’s on combine day. With a history of weight control issues and his inability to produce top numbers, it’s obvious why Smith decided to abandon the combine.

Blocking has little to do with running in a straight line for 40 yards but conditioning does and Smith clearly is lacking conditioning. The Detroit Lions have dealt with weight issues in their recent past including with their All-Pro defensive lineman, Sean ‘Big Baby’ Rogers.

The Lions responded to that problem by trading Big Baby away after the player spent dozens of snaps a game sucking down oxygen on the sidelines. It’s safe to say the Lions are not interested in dealing with another potential weight-control or conditioning issue.

The slam-dunk pick of the draft is Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry. Curry is believed to be the safest pick and as the Lions attempt to survive a decade of draft disasters and the stench that fired President Matt Millen has left behind, it is imperative they end up with a player who can step into a starting position on opening day.

That player is Aaron Curry and I expect to see him donning Honolulu Blue alongside Ernie Sims on opening day after being selected as the No. 1 overall pick on draft day.

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