National League pennant races are gearing up as the calendar is just days away from turning to September marking the 
beginning of baseball’s stretch run.
Seven different teams are within five games of a playoff spot in the NL so there should be a laundry list of meaningful games played over the final month of the season.
Although no teams are mathematically eliminated at this point, only six teams have greater than 10% chance of making the playoffs according to www.coolstandings.com. The Colorado Rockies, who have won five of their past six, have jumped on the wagon and pulled within 4.5 games of the Wild Card lead.
With only four teams making the playoffs we should expect some exciting neck-to-neck races as the season winds down into post-season.
NL East:
Competitors and Their Playoff Chances:
Atlanta Braves: 89.2%
Philadelphia Phillies: 52.7%
Stretch Run Outlook:
The Florida Marlins are a distant third at 9.5 games back in the NL East so this looks like a two team race.
Atlanta and Philadelphia have both been struggling a little over the past week. The Braves were swept by Colorado, including the game they imploded, blowing a nine-run lead, yet they ended up gaining half a game in the standings because the Phillies lost four straight games to Houston.
Injuries have played a big part in this race, as both teams have seen star players including Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Heyward and Martin Prado go down. Currently, Ryan Howard is still on the DL for the Phillies and franchise cornerstone Chipper Jones will miss the remainder of the season for the Braves.
Both teams will play plenty of division games down the stretch. The Phillies end the season with 25 straight against division foes and the Braves play 18 in a row against the NL East. Additionally, the two teams will meet for six games the rest of the way, including a crucial three game series from October 1-3 in Atlanta to end the season.
Over the course of the remainder of the year the teams should stay close, meaning the division will be decided in the final series between the two clubs. In the end, I give the edge to the Braves. They have a much better run differential on the season, and if the division does come down to one final series, the Braves will be at home where they have the best record in baseball.
NL Central:
Competitors and Their Playoff Chances:
Cincinnati Reds: 88.8%
St. Louis Cardinals: 39.2%
Stretch Run Outlook:
The Reds have opened up a five game lead on the division, but surprisingly have a worse run differential than the Cardinals on the season.
Going down the stretch, the biggest question mark will be whether or not the Reds pitching staff (specifically their starters) can hold up. Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo are probably the worst 1-2 combination of the six teams closest to the playoffs, and Edinson Volquez has struggled since returning from the DL.
Additionally, Mike Leake (who has already fizzled out over the long season), Travis Wood and Homer Bailey are inexperienced and may not be able to handle the pressures of a pennant race.
One interesting sub-plot of these teams battling it out over the remainder of the season is the possible Triple Crown battle between Albert Pujols and Joey Votto. Both are in the top three of all the Triple Crown categories, and will have to battle with each other and Carlos Gonzalez for a chance to accomplish the historic feat.
Despite the Reds questionable starting rotation, I don’t think the Cardinals will be able to close the gap. The two teams play their final series with each other this coming weekend, and the Cardinals will have to win or sweep the series if they want to have any chance of overtaking the Reds for the division lead.
NL West:
Competitors and Their Playoff Chances:
San Diego Padres: 92.5%
San Francisco Giants: 31.1%
Colorado Rockies: 3.9%
While the Rockies are still within five games of a playoff spot, their chances of winning the NL West are extremely thin. They just came off a big sweep of the Braves and proceeded to take two of three from the Dodgers to keep a slim hope of the playoffs alive.
The Padres have opened a five game lead over the Giants, although neither of those teams are playing extremely well right now; in fact, no team in the National League has won more than six of their past 10 games.
The Padres pitching staff has been carrying the team all year long, and while their starters have been phenomenal their bullpen has been even better. Heath Bell, Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams, Tim Stauffer, Joe Thatcher and Ernesto Frieri all have ERA’s below 3.00.
While I like the addition of Jose Guillen to the Giants offense, they too will need to rely on pitching if they are to make it to the playoffs. Both Tim Lincecum (5.17 ERA) and Barry Zito (4.72) have struggled since the All-Star break.
The Giants and Padres have seven games remaining against each other, including a three game set in San Francisco on the last three days of the season. Although I like the Giants offense better and think Lincecum will improve on his terrible second half, the Padres will win this division and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was over before the teams met for their last series of the season.
Wild Card Race:
Unlike the American League, the National League is setting up to have a heated race to the Wild Card. The Phillies currently lead the way by 1.5 games over the Giants, 3 games over the Cardinals and 4.5 games over the Rockies.
If my division predictions hold, those four teams will be competing for one final playoff spot as we get closer to October. Of the four teams, the Cardinals have the best run differential and have allowed the fewest runs this season. The Rockies have the highest scoring offense, and the two frontrunners have shown to be solid all-around teams.
Down the stretch teams typically play more games within their division, which his bad news for San Francisco, which has a losing record against the NL West. The Phillies have been terrific against the NL East (19-9) and end the season with 25 games against divisional opponents.
I think that the Phillies will ultimately win the Wild Card, as they are currently in the lead and have played great against their division. The team has dealt with injuries all year and should be playing its best baseball down the stretch as most of their starters are playing every day once again.
Used with permission of the author.
Along with contributing to Sports Climax, Brett Kettyle is the Atlanta Braves Community Leader on Bleacher Report and maintains a Braves column for MTR Media. Follow Brett on Twitter.
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hunt for an NL playoff spot, it can’t get much better than that.