Over three quarters of the baseball season has been played and when the calendar flips to September expect some 
exciting American League pennant races to go down to the wire.
While no teams have been mathematically eliminated, only six AL teams still have a greater than 10% chance of making it to the playoffs according to www.coolstandings.com.
Since only four teams make the playoffs we should see some tight series as teams grind it out and the schedule rounds third and heads for home. Here’s the rundown of the remaining teams vying for a post-season spot.
AL East:
Competitors and their Playoff Chances:
New York Yankees: 93.8%
Tampa Bay Rays: 93.3%
Boston Red Sox: 10.5%
Stretch Run Outlook:
Although the Red Sox still have a little greater than 10% chance of making the playoffs, it is looking more and more certain that they will be spending October at home for the first time since 2006. If you were to pick a random player from the Red Sox opening day roster, you would more than likely choose someone who has spent time on the DL this year.
Currently, the list of injured Red Sox includes Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. The injuries, coupled with the ineffectiveness of Josh Beckett and John Lackey have essentially killed the Red Sox playoff hopes. While they still have a chance to get in, they picked up Detroit Tigers player Johnny Damon on waivers today hoping to increase their chances. Besides Damon, they would have to use a cast including several replacement players to get through the two strongest teams in baseball.
As you can see from the playoff odds, both the Rays and Yankees are likely to make the playoffs this year. The Yankees currently have a one game lead in the division and the Rays lead the Wild Card race by 5.5 games (over the Red Sox). The Chicago White Sox are the only non division leading AL East team that is even within 10 games of the Rays.
On the year, the Yankees have the best run-differential in all of baseball (followed closely by the Rays) and are leading the majors in runs scored. The Yanks are third in the AL in fewest runs allowed, so the pitching hasn’t been too shabby either.
The Rays on the other hand, have allowed the fewest runs while pushing the third most across the plate.
Over the rest of the season, the Yankees and Rays meet seven more times (four of them at Yankee Stadium), which could play a huge part in deciding who wins the division and who takes the Wild Card. The Rays currently hold the advantage between the two teams, with a 6-5 record and +1 run differential in 11 games against the Yankees.
While it probably won’t matter who wins the division and who takes the Wild Card (both teams will likely be the favorites to advance to the ALCS), I would put my money on the Yankees at this point. Although the return of Jeff Neimann will help, I think the Rays would have benefited from leaving Jeremy Hellickson in the starting rotation instead of Wade Davis.
AL Central:
Competitors and their Playoff Chances:
Minnesota Twins: 88.2%
Chicago White Sox: 13.5%
Stretch Run Outlook:
The Central originally looked like a three team race, but the Detroit Tigers have collapsed leaving the White Sox and Twins to battle for the Division.
Just 12 days ago on August 11th, the Twins and White Sox were actually tied atop the division, but a Chicago cold streak and Minnesota hot streak have allowed the Twins to open up a five game lead over the White Sox.
Going forward, I just don’t see the White Sox catching the Twins. So far, the Twins have scored more runs and allowed fewer than the White Sox. The Twins also have a much larger group of players on the DL and will only get even stronger from here on out (especially when Justin Morneau returns).
The two teams face off only three times over the remainder of the season, which could be considered a positive or negative for the White Sox. The easiest way to make up ground is by playing head-to-head, but the White Sox are only 5-10 against the Twins so far this year, and might only stand to lose more if they played more often.
Although the White Sox have some hitters (specifically Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham) who have stepped up in the second half, they will struggle to play better than the more complete Twins team.
AL West:
Competitors and their Playoff Chances:
Texas Rangers: 92.4%
Both the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have less than a five percent chance of making the playoffs, so the AL West doesn’t appear to be much of a race down the stretch. The Rangers have played the worst baseball (.561 winning percentage) of any division leader (they actually have only the fifth best record in the American League) yet still hold an eight game division lead. Thus far the Rangers have split the season series (6-6) with Oakland and hold a slight edge over (7-5) over Los Angeles so unless something drastic changes in the division, the Rangers should be coasting toward October and getting set to play the Wild Card winner.
Used with permission of the author.
Along with contributing to Sports Climax, Brett Kettyle is the Atlanta Braves Community Leader on Bleacher Report and maintains a Braves column for MTR Media. Follow Brett on Twitter.
Copyright ©2010 Sports Climax, LLC