For the past two seasons, the AL Central race has gone to the last day of the season. Actually, it’s gone past that, as 
both the Chicago White Sox (in 2008) and Minnesota Twins (2009) needed an extra game to win the division outright.
This year, the AL Central will once again likely come down to the wire, with three evenly matched teams fighting for what will likely be, barring a collapse of the Tampa Bay Rays, one playoff spot.
At the time of this article, the White Sox have a 2.5 game lead over the Detroit Tigers and a 3 game lead over the Twins.
Interestingly enough, the Twins actually have the best run differential of the three, and the Tigers seem to be playing above their heads right now with a negative run differential despite a winning record.
Offensively, the Twins have led the way so far. With Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, they have scored the most runs in the division and have also gotten surprising production from Delmon Young.
On the other side of the ball, the White Sox have allowed the fewest runs, but will be without Jake Peavy for the remainder of the season. The Sox have a terrific bullpen, and have been scoring more runs lately as Gordon Beckham remembers how to hit.
The Tigers would seem to have a great lineup, with the fifth best batting average and seventh best OBP in all of baseball. However, the team is only tied for 16th in runs scored. Pitching wise, the Tigers rotation is rather thin after Justin Verlander, and even he hasn’t been overly impressive (3.87 ERA) thus far in 2010.
Over the rest of the season, the White Sox may be at a scheduling disadvantage, as they have played six more home games than the Twins and seven more than the Tigers.
But the most important thing to who wins the division will be head-to-head competition.
In September, the White Sox have seven games with Detroit and three with Minnesota. The Tigers and Twins play each other five times that month.
Minnesota seems to have the edge in head-to-head competition, with winning records over both the Tigers and White Sox. The Tigers are at the biggest disadvantage, as they also have a losing record against Chicago.
All in all, if the last two years have proved anything, it’s that anyone could ultimately walk away with the AL Central.
If I had to put my money on one team at this point, it would be the Twins, who have the best run differential to date, winning records against both the White Sox and Tigers, and have been involved in the one game playoff in each of the past two years.
Used with permission of the author.
Along with contributing to Sports Climax, Brett Kettyle is the Atlanta Braves Community Leader on Bleacher Report and maintains a Braves column for MTR Media.
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